AAA Region 1 Cream Analysis - 2016 Season

[Bearhugger]

There has been some recent dialogue that equates the 2016 AAA region 1 to the 2017 AAA region 4 in terms of strength, number of ranked wrestlers, and ranked wrestlers not qualifying for the state tournament.

Before any comparison is made, I want to include my sources of data in chronological sequence.

In 2016, a coach’s poll was released on February 18th, 2016.

The regional tournaments were held on February 20th, 2016.

The final coach’s poll was released February 24th, 2016.

The state tournament was held on February 25th through 27th.

For this exercise, we need to use the February 18th poll whereas these are the ranked wrestlers who then either qualify or fail to qualify. The 24th’s poll is influenced by the results of the regions.

Using the February 18th, 2016 poll (pre-region) here is what AAA region 1 had:

106: 4 ranked wrestlers. All 4 qualified. Only 5 wrestlers in region.

113: 6 ranked wrestlers. Only 3 qualified. One didn’t make weight. An unranked wrestler with a much better record filled the 4th spot. It is interesting that he was not ranked. 7 wrestlers were in the weight class.

120: 3 ranked wrestlers. All 3 qualified. 7 in total.

126: 3 ranked. All 3 qualified. 8 in total.

132: 3 ranked. All 3 qualified. 8 in total.

138: 3 ranked. All 3 qualified. 7 in total.

145: 3 ranked. Only 2 qualified. 8 in total. The ranked wrestler who failed to qualify had a 9-8 record (if this record is accurate). The two unranked qualifiers had a much better record.

152: 3 ranked. 2 qualified. ONE was out due to illness. 7 in total.

160: 2 ranked. All 2 qualified. 8 in total.

170: 3 ranked. All 3 qualified. 8 in total.

182: 4 ranked. All 4 qualified. 8 in total.

195: 4 ranked. All 4 qualified. 8 in total.

220: 4 ranked. All 4 qualified. 7 in total.

285: 3 ranked. All 3 qualified. 6 in total.

Based on the above, the reason why there was not a great deal of attention on regional strength is because it was spread out more. There were 48 ranked wrestlers walking into AAA region 1 in 2016. 43 qualified. 43 / 48 = 89.58%.

One wrestler was ill and did not compete.
One wrestler failed to make weight.

If you take these two out, then it is 43 / 46 = 93.48%.

As for the other three, their records were not better than the wrestlers who beat them out. They probably should not have been ranked to begin with. Or maybe they just were not the cream.

93.48% of the time, the rankings were on and the ranked wrestlers qualified.

[vortexfan]

Love the research you provided!

As a leader of our country might say

"Let's make Wrestling competitive again"
"Let's make wrestling popular again"
"Let's make the regionals great again"
"Let's make the States great again"


"LETS MAKE WV HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING GREAT AGAIN"!

[Bearhugger]

Love the research you provided!

As a leader of our country might say

"Let's make Wrestling competitive again"
"Let's make wrestling popular again"
"Let's make the regionals great again"
"Let's make the States great again"


"LETS MAKE WV HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING GREAT AGAIN"!

That is better than "Let's leave wrestling the way it has been for 50 years"

Heck, even Tudor's Biscuits evolves. They expand their menu to stay in business.

[Sally]

Waiting for the, "rankings don't mean anything and they aren't accurate", argument.......

[KDunbar]

It would appear that this information shows the following:
1) At least for region 1 the rankings seem to predict who will make it to the states very, very accurately.
2) In region 1, last year there were only 2 wrestlers who could fall into the category "of being ranked but with no chance of making it to the state tournament".
3) Since there are 14 weight classes and ten ranked in each weight class, there were 140 ranked wrestlers. If divided evenly among 4 regions one would expect 35 ranked wrestlers in each region. Having 48 ranked wrestlers in region one equates to them having 20% more ranked wrestlers than one would expect. I'm not exactly sure what to say about this 20% figure unless statistically compared to chance and I don't want to spend the time doing those calculations.
I don't know if adding up the rankings in terms of position ranked (10 for 1st, 9 for 2nd, etc.){which again I don't have the inclination to calculate} would show an even greater disparity between the regions when considering the rankings as any kind of predictor. But I'm not sure that is what this discussion is actually about or if it a comparison between the number of ranked wrestlers in 2016 Region 1 not having any chance of making it to the State tournament (2), compared to what will happen in 2017 Region 4 (time will tell).

[vortexfan]

Sure would like someone to research how years passed may have worked with a two regional format.

Possible North sites for regionals; WVU coliseum, Fairmont armory, Wes Banco arena, Brooke HS, Parkersburg HS, Wheeling Park HS.

South sites; Charleston Civic Center, Beckley armory, Big Sandy